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Policy evaluation and the causal analysis of public support

Stefano Carattini, Robert Dur, John List

Many policies that are generally considered socially desirable by the scientific community, based on modelling and causal empirical analyses, are not very widespread. The main driver is often lack of public support at baseline (“ex ante”). Yet, there is evidence that when voters hold biased beliefs ex ante about a given policy, experiencing the policy first-hand may lead them to correct their beliefs and increase public support (1).

If it was widely documented that opposition to sound policies in part dissipates when voters experience a given policy, then more policy-makers may be inclined to experiment with policies that scientists recommend but that are unpopular ex ante. Systematically combining policy evaluation with causal analysis of public support would allow scholars to create a body of knowledge on the conditions under which policies become more (or less) popular after implementation and what are the drivers of changes in beliefs and public support.

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Publications

Tracking methane super-emitters from space

Jonathan O’Callaghan

No one noticed when an old pipe started spewing methane into the sky in the British countryside. The leak, near a railway line and landfill site in Cheltenham, UK, released more than 200 kilograms of methane an hour, yet the invisible gas went undetected. That was until Emily Dowd, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, UK, spotted the leak in March 2023 while looking through observations from a passing satellite. “It was completely by chance,” she says.

Dowd had been monitoring the landfill site using data from a methane-detecting satellite 500 kilometres above Earth, built by GHGSat, based in Montreal, Canada. Over the next 11 weeks, she worked with other scientists to identify the exact location of the leak and alert the utility company responsible. “We observed it until it was fixed in June,” she says. Between the time the leak was discovered and when it was fixed, Dowd says, the energy in the methane released was equivalent to the electricity used by 7,500 homes over one year.

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Publications

Methane Prevention: A Fast Way To Make An Impact On Climate Change

Dee Lawrence

While there are many different points of view in the climate world, most agree that carbon emissions are a key contributor to climate change. Where the disagreements occur is when the conversation shifts to how to best reduce those emissions. Many advocate that only removing carbon dioxide (CO2) already in our atmosphere will solve our climate problems, while others insist that preventing CO2 from ever entering our atmosphere is the quickest way to make a major impact on the planet. No surprise, both are right!

New research indicates that these two approaches are actually equal when it comes to their effect on the atmosphere and our warming planet. When compensating for emissions, there is a choice made between removing CO2 or avoiding CO2. If you select one method, then you are not selecting the other. Thus, the net effect on the atmosphere is the same. If you remove a ton, then the ton to be avoided is still released into the atmosphere. If you avoid a ton, then the ton to be removed stays in the atmosphere. Some point to the bathtub water analogy: Is it better to turn off the tap or to unplug the tub to prevent it from running over?

 

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Publications

Atmospheric methane removal: A promising but challenging climate solution

Sean Mowbray

  • Methane is currently responsible for about one-third of global warming. This greenhouse gas is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in terms of its ability to heat up the climate system, though methane molecules only persist in the atmosphere for seven to 12 years before breaking down.
  • Methane emissions are a major cause for concern, as they’ve been increasing at record speeds the past five years. At least two-thirds of annual methane emissions now come from human activities, including livestock, agriculture, fossil fuels, and landfills and other waste. Climate change is also increasing methane releases.
  • Removing atmospheric methane is a tempting prospect as a climate change-curbing strategy. Multiple geoengineering approaches are being considered, but research remains limited and largely theoretical, while environmental impacts largely remain unknown and underexplored.
  • Researchers say methane removal technologies, such as the iron salt method, should be investigated to break down atmospheric methane molecules. But scientists interviewed for this story repeatedly emphasized the most urgent need is to simultaneously make rapid deep cuts to human-caused methane emissions.

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Publications

Methane mitigation in agriculture: A call for sustainable action at COP29 and beyond

Fernanda Ferreira

Summary
  • Food systems have evolved significantly over the past 60 years, contributing to a reduction in food insecurity and a dramatic decrease in poverty around the world.
  • However, these systems are responsible for a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, a potent contributor to global warming.
  • Although every country bears responsibility for addressing these emissions, agriculture production and methane emissions are not equally distributed across the world.
  • For this reason, it’s crucial to adopt a fair and just approach that considers the management of agriculture methane emissions while also guaranteeing country development, food security and adequate nutrition.
  • Availability of methane-reducing technology and practices, global agreements, innovative national policies and access to finance are some entry points for governments to fight agriculture methane emissions.

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Publications

Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications

Myles R. Allen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Cécile A.J. Girardin, Stuart Jenkins, Yadvinder Malhi, Eli Mitchell-Larson, Glen P. Peters, and Lavanya Rajamani

This review explains the science behind the drive for global net zero emissions and why this is needed to halt the ongoing rise in global temperatures. We document how the concept of net zero carbon dioxide (CO) emissions emerged from an earlier focus on stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Using simple conceptual models of the coupled climate–carbon cycle system, we explain why approximately net zero CO emissions and declining net energy imbalance due to other climate drivers are required to halt global warming on multidecadal timescales, introducing important concepts, including the rate of adjustment to constant forcing and the rate of adjustment to zero emissions. The concept of net zero was taken up through the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Structured Expert Dialogue, culminating in Article 4of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Increasing numbers of net zero targets have since been adopted by countries, cities, corporations, and investors. The degree to which any entity can claim to have achieved net zero while continuing to rely on distinct removals to compensate for ongoing emissions is at the heart of current debates over carbon markets and offsetting both inside and outside the UNFCCC. We argue that what matters here is not the precise makeup of a basket of emissions and removals at any given point in time, but the sustainability of a net zero strategy as a whole and its implications for global temperature over multidecadal timescales. Durable, climate-neutral net zero strategies require like-for-like balancing of anthropogenic greenhouse gas sources and sinks in terms of both origin (biogenic versus geological) and gas lifetime.

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Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for Paris climate goals

Cyril Brunner, Zeke Hausfather & Reto Knutti

Carbon Dioxide Removal is essential for achieving net zero emissions, as it is required to neutralize any residual CO2 emissions. The scientifically recognized definition of Carbon Dioxide Removal requires removed atmospheric CO2 to be stored “durably”; however, it remains unclear what is meant by durably, and interpretations have varied from decades to millennia. Using a reduced-complexity climate model, here we examined the effect of Carbon Dioxide Removal with varying CO2 storage durations. We found that storage duration substantially affects whether net zero emissions achieve the desired temperature outcomes. With a typical 100-year storage duration, net zero CO2 emissions with 6 GtCO2 per year residual emissions result in an additional warming of 1.1 °C by 2500 compared to permanent storage, thus putting the internationally agreed temperature limits at risk. Our findings suggest that a CO2 storage period of less than 1000 years is insufficient for neutralizing remaining fossil CO2 emissions under net zero emissions. These results reinforce the principle that credible neutralization claims using Carbon Dioxide Removal in a net zero framework require balancing emissions with removals of similar atmospheric residence time and storage reservoir, e.g., geological or biogenic.

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Publications

CAN WE IMPROVE ESTIMATES OF N2O EMISSIONS IN ARGENTINA?

The use of default and homogeneous emission factors throughout the country in the estimation of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions derived from the application of synthetic fertilizers in the Greenhouse Gas Inventories of Argentina, does not allow to reflect the local productive characteristics and their regional differences. The objectives of this work were: a) to disaggregate the information of the data of synthetic nitrogen (N) applied by region, crop and climate and b) to analyze and synthesize the status of Argentine research in the development of local emission factors (EF). For the first objective, a methodology was developed to disaggregate the data of N applied by jurisdiction and crop. For the second, a compilation of scientific works published in national and international journals was carried out. The data on N application by jurisdiction and crop was disaggregated by cross-referencing different sources of information. 36.7% of the N applied nationwide is concentrated in the Province of Buenos Aires, 26.3% in Córdoba, 12% in Santa Fe and 7.3% in Entre Ríos. Corn ( Zea mays L.) and wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) are the crops with the highest N application, 33.9% and 23.3%, respectively. On the other hand, we found 11 works that allow proposing emission factors to estimate direct N 2 O emissions from experimental data, and 15 that allow estimating the volatilization or leaching fractions that result in indirect N 2 O emissions. The average values ​​estimated and reported from the literature were: 0.0124 kg N 2 O–N (kg N) -1 (direct N 2 O EF), 0.081 kg volatilized N (kg N) -1 (volatilization fraction) and 0.244 kg N (kg N) -1 (leaching fraction). These average values ​​differ by up to 25% from those currently used in the National Inventory.

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